Now that the Parliament’s Monsoon Session has ended in the old building while the new one awaits use after its inauguration; we could talk about the A.L.L.I.A.N.C.E coming-out party. It took the form of a farcical no-confidence motion that was a damp squib.
The ostensible reason was to force the prime minister to speak out on the troubles in Manipur. What the Opposition alliance, Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (I.N.D.I.A), did not bargain for is that the treasury benches would wipe the floor with them on matters including Manipur, but much more in an adverse vein particularly against the Congress. Home Minister Amit Shah’s two-hour explanation with detailed facts and figures on what is being done by the government in Manipur gave a comprehensive report not only to the Opposition, but the nation at large.
Much hysteria was displayed by the Opposition with its single-point agenda, including some trademark childishness from Rahul Gandhi, and a banshee-like performance by Mohua Moitra from the TMC. There was another bull-in-a-china shop effort by Derek O’Brien from the self-same party also, but this was in the Rajya Sabha.
The prime minister spoke last in reply and rendered a masterful and magisterial speech of over one-and-a-half hours on parliamentary history, the shameless projection of the ‘parivaar’ over every other contributor towards nation-building, the consistent shortcomings of the Congress party in its handling of the Northeast, the accomplishments of his own government in nine years, the naked power-hungriness of the Opposition alliance, and Manipur, specifically. It was so searing in its content that the Opposition alliance walked out of the Lok Sabha. They came back for the voting, but they might as well not have bothered.
Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury, once a fiery street speaker cum rabble-rouser from West Bengal, and a prominent leader in the Lok Sabha for the Congress, was suspended from the membership of Lok Sabha pending a report from the Privileges Committee. Likewise, AAP’s Raghav Chadha, who apparently forged the signatures of four MPs from other parties for an intended Select Committee that never took off, was suspended too, from Rajya Sabha. Derek O’Brien was suspended as well, but was allowed back by Rajya Sabha Chairman. Jagdeep Dhankar.
The entire three-day tamasha was televised on most Indian news channels and analysed every evening by expert panellists and anchors who might have hoped for a less unequal fight. As usual, the vitriol continued through the wounded Congress spokespersons. Opposition alliance I.N.D.I.A is scheduled to meet again in Mumbai at the end of August, but it is likely the AAP will skip it.
What did this no-confidence vote exercise achieve? It certainly made the government and the treasury benches look much better than their accusers. Will it contribute towards the winnability of the alliance in the forthcoming assembly elections and the general elections in 2024? Doubtful. It was, in fact, a disastrous first outing.
The return of Rahul Gandhi to the parliament, as a for-the-time-being restored MP, complicates the pitch for other prime ministerial aspirants in the Opposition alliance. Nitish Kumar has reportedly managed to secure the post of Convenor as a stepping stone for his own bid. There are doubts being expressed by some analysts on the cohesion of I.N.D.I.A till the general elections. In Bihar, the JDU/JDS combine may not sustain in one piece.
Will both bits stick with the Opposition alliance if a break-up does occur?
The Congress needs to up its Lok Sabha seat tally to at least 100 MPs in order to become the undeniable anchor. While it is the only party with pan-India recognition in the combine, its electoral prospects are not inspiring. Rahul Gandhi’s visibility may have increased since the Bharat Jodo Yatra but his vision for India is a retrograde one. He merely wants to preserve the Nehruvian idea of India. His own contribution seems to be a sharp tilt towards the minorities, including the extremists amongst them. The Congress party’s links with China and Pakistan are also exposed and fairly obvious. Rahul Gandhi is travelling to Europe once again in September to drum up support from more anti-Modi forces. He will, no doubt, also describe conditions in Indian democracy in the most dire terms.
It is unlikely that the Indian voter, beyond the Congress’ fairly narrow supporter base, will take kindly to this strategy. More so, when it is contrasted with Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s highly effective global diplomatic outreach, supported ably by the External Affairs Minister, and increasingly, the National Security Advisor.
India’s continued rise as an economic power and reliable partner is being seen as an alternative to a declining China, for trade, manufacturing, and defence purposes. Even the leadership of BRICS, which started originally alongside China, Russia and Brazil are turning more towards India for its future direction and induction of likely additional members, such as the UAE and Saudi Arabia. BRICS is no longer keen to push the Chinese agenda, if it ever was, with its aim to dominate America, while others in the combine were expected to fall in with it.
The lack of a national and global vision in the Opposition alliance beyond the overthrow of the BJP and NDA is going to hurt its prospects. It sometimes talks of unemployment, price rise, per capita income, and cronyism, but does not sustain it. Neither does it have any solutions. It bases its campaigns on AAP-style freebies, which resonate with the poor in the voting public. But they invariably have trouble fulfilling promises and sustaining development if voted to power.
However, ten years in power at the Centre is bound to throw up a certain amount of anti-incumbency for the ruling NDA. On the plus side, Narendra Modi’s personal popularity, charisma, and commitment to the nation will counterbalance this. Prime Minister Modi, who will be 75 in 2025, is in good health and likely to complete another five-year term in office to execute his vision. He has repeatedly pledged that India will be the number three economy in the world by 2028, and he will do everything possible to keep the momentum towards this objective.
At present, the chances of a third consecutive term with a majority in favour of the BJP and the NDA seem very bright.
The writer is a Delhi-based political commentator. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely that of the author. They do not necessarily reflect News18’s views.
